20% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $70,000 by the end of April — options data suggests | CoinDesk JAPAN

• Lyra’s decentralized Bitcoin options market sees a 20% chance that the price will rise above $70,000 by the end of April.
• Lyra recently listed options expiring on April 26th, allowing traders to speculate on price movements ahead of and following the Bitcoin reward halving scheduled for mid-April.

According to options data from decentralized marketplace Lyra Finance, there is a 1 in 5 chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will exceed $70,000 by the end of April.

In an interview with CoinDesk, Lyra founder and former Wall Street options trader Nick Forster said, “The Lyra market predicts Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high by April 26th. “We're suggesting there's about a 20% chance[of it]trading for more than $70,000.”

Lyra traders are responding to Bitcoin's recent move above $50,000.I was in the correct position. It may come as a surprise that their latest view is that a record move above $70,000 by the end of April is unlikely.

Bitcoin has risen 35% in three weeks to more than $52,000, its highest since late 2021, on a bullish note fueled by strong inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This is because it shows momentum.

Among crypto asset (virtual currency) traders, US fiscal policy has changed in recent years.most excitingThe consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to rise further as it continues to remain strong and compensate for rising interest rates. The halving of mining rewards, which is considered a once-in-four-year bullish factor for the Bitcoin blockchain, is also scheduled for April, and the probability of a global recession has also fallen to the lowest level since December 2021. , all elements of financial markets support risk-taking.

Options are derivatives that give the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A call option gives you the right to buy an asset, and a put option gives you the right to sell it. The way options are priced at a given point in time gives sophisticated traders clues as to where they expect the market to go in the coming weeks and months.

According to DeFiLlama, Lyla is the world's largest decentralized crypto asset options exchange, and the world's largest decentralized exchange (DEX) option with $32 million (approximately 4.8 billion yen, exchange rate of 1 dollar = 150 yen) in the past 24 hours. Accounts for 50% of trading volume.

The protocol recently listed Bitcoin options with an expiration date of April 26th, giving traders the chance to trade ahead of a reward halving that is programmed to slow the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50%, scheduled for mid-April. Now you can bet on the price movement immediately after.

“Early trading for the April 26 expiry is focused to the upside, with call buyers targeting $64,000 and $70,000,” Forster said.

｜Translation: CoinDesk JAPAN
｜Edited by: Toshihiko Inoue
｜Image: Shutterstock
｜Original text: Crypto Traders See 20% Chance of Bitcoin Topping $70K by April End: DeFi Options Marketplace Lyra