Arthur Hayes is extremely bullish on Bitcoin price and predicts bailout measures from US banks

9 months ago 70

Bitcoin price prediction

On the 6th, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the crypto asset (virtual currency) exchange BitMEX, posted on X an extremely bullish scenario in which the price of Bitcoin could rise to $1 million (approximately 140 million yen).

Amidst reports of financial instability at regional bank New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that he believes the US economy and banks are very strong. He also said he expected banks to be bailed out, which could push up the price of Bitcoin.

Resume the dump!

JAYPOW says US econ & banks strong to very strong.$NYCB says otherwise. Who is right the market or the central banker?

Time and compounding interest are two things even Neo-Keynesians can’t wish away.

The bailout is coming, $BTC = $1mm

Yachtzee pic.twitter.com/yWLqly72jY

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 5, 2024

What is FRB?

Abbreviation for “Federal Reserve Board.” Refers to the central institution equivalent to the central bank of the United States.

Virtual currency glossary

NYCB’s 2023 4Q financial results revealed a deficit and a dividend cut. At the time of writing this article, NYCB’s stock price was down more than 22% from the previous day.

connection:Bitcoin monthly chart suggests a trend change signal, with a view to testing the top price in the short term | Contributed by a bitbank analyst

It is unclear whether the United States will implement bailout measures for banks, but if they do, a huge amount of dollars will be injected into the bank. It is also possible that more people will choose Bitcoin as a haven for their assets. Mr. Hayes did not explain in detail the rationale for the $1 million price tag, but this seems to be the basis for his bullish scenario.

Past analysis

Mr. Hayes has been analyzing the market price of virtual currencies, but recently he has been paying close attention to the banking industry. Last month, he predicted that “Bitcoin could plummet in March” due to the possibility that the U.S. Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) would not be renewed. He mentioned that there is.

connection:Why Arthur Hayes predicts a sharp fall in Bitcoin in March What are the three major events to watch?

BTFP is a program designed to provide banks with loans for up to one year. The Fed established this measure as a time-limited measure in response to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

At the time, Hayes predicted that if the BTFP period is not extended in March, when it is due for renewal, some banks may go bankrupt. Then, on the 24th of last month, the Federal Reserve announced that it would end the BTFP on March 11th.

Last month, he said he would take maximum crypto risk if BTFP is updated. At that time, he announced that he would continue selling government bonds and purchasing virtual currencies.

connection: Arthur Hayes: “Bitcoin support line is $30,000 to $35,000”