Bitcoin breaks below $27,000 ─ Investors’ attention will shift to the halving in 2024 | coindesk JAPAN | Coindesk Japan

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $27,000 and lost gains from the previous day as investors remain focused on Washington DC’s ongoing debt ceiling issue and the latest regulatory developments. .

According to CoinDesk data, bitcoin fell 2.1% in 24 hours at the time of writing near $26,700. It tried $27,500 in the morning of the 18th, but fell to around $26,400 in the early afternoon.

CoinDesk

“Bitcoin has hovered around recent lows as investors try to determine regulatory clarity and whether Wall Street believes use case discussions will begin soon,” said Oanda. Senior market analyst Edward Moya wrote in a note Wednesday.

“This frustrating trading range could turn many investors off, and the downside pressure could resume if crypto fundamentals don’t improve any time soon,” Moya said.

More than $20 million worth of bitcoin futures have been liquidated in the past four hours, according to data from Coinglass. Eighty-seven percent were long positions, i.e., investing in rising prices.

Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, dropping 1.6% to near $1,795 on the afternoon of the 18th. The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), which measures the performance of the entire crypto market, fell 2.2%.

debt ceiling problem

Alex Tapscott, managing director of the digital assets group at Ninepoint Partners, said Bitcoin has recently performed more like a “tech stock” than a “pure store of value.” told CoinDesk.

“Almost all assets fell against the US dollar last year. It was really a liquidity crisis with interest rates going up and people deleveraging. were U.S. Treasuries and U.S. dollars.”

While some analysts have argued that the debt ceiling issue could boost “safe haven assets” such as gold and bitcoin, Tapscott sees a scenario in which bitcoin will rise if the government defaults. says he is not convinced.

Noelle Acheson, a market analyst and former head of research at Genesis Trading and CoinDesk, both subsidiaries of Digital Currency Group, said that if the debt ceiling were raised, “the Treasury would replenish the Treasury. Because of the issuance of a large amount of government bonds for this purpose, financial liquidity may be rapidly reduced,” he said in the Newsletter on the 18th.

Debt issuance is bad for Bitcoin and Gold as it means “money will move from cash and risky assets to Treasuries, especially as yields on these financial products rise to offset increased supply.” added that it could be Both tend to fall in price when yields rise.

half-life cycle

While the debt ceiling has rattled the market, Ninepoint Partners’ Tapscott said investors will soon be looking to Bitcoin’s 2024 halving cycle. A halving “typically precedes a bull market.”

Looking at the price charts of the last three halvings (2012, 2016, and 2020), Messari Research analyst Sami Kassab said, “Bitcoin has gone through each halving. It’s clear we’ve been in a consistent bull market 12-18 months before ,” he told CoinDesk.

Kassab said the current Bitcoin B price movement appears to be in line with these past cycles, indicating that “this pattern is still holding.” However, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Charlie Morris, chief investment officer at ByteTree Asset Management, said the halving is likely not fully priced in.

“Miner selling pressure literally halves next April, which is good news. Additionally, a four-year cycle (=halving) typically ends the cycle with Bitcoin above its average price for that cycle. Become”

｜Translation: coindesk JAPAN
｜Editing: Takayuki Masuda
｜Image: CoinDesk
｜Original: Bitcoin Drops Below $27K as Investors Continue to Weigh Debt Ceiling Talks, Regulatory Actions