Bitcoin ETF, 83% support “approval by January 15th” | CoinDesk JAPAN

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% on January 3rd after reporting analysts’ views on the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US, expected later this month, making it the largest crypto asset. This caused a sharp decline in highly leveraged futures tracking cryptocurrencies.

Professional analysts remain of mixed opinion on the market impact of the approval, which is expected to take place by January 15, but many in the crypto community are betting on it using prediction market Polymarket. Like others, they expect a positive decision from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

“ETF naysayers are crypto flat earthers,” wrote one user on the platform who bought 2,800 “Yes” responses to positive decisions.

At Polymarket, you can bet on topics such as sports, politics, and pop culture. Price represents the current probability that an event will occur and ranges from $0 to 99 cents. When the bet ends, it becomes $1.

One popular market is the bet “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?” which has attracted close to $1 million from hundreds of users. are collecting.

“If Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC by 11:59:59 PM ET on January 15, 2024, this market will be ‘Yes’; otherwise, it will be ‘No.'” is stated in the conditions. “The primary source of information for this bet is the SEC, but a consensus of reliable reporting could also be used.”

Bets on Bitcoin ETF approval are heating up. (Polymarket)

More than 83% of bets are “Yes”, close to the “90% probability” given by analysts.

According to user comments on Polymarket, bettors against the decision also seem to think the ETF will be approved eventually, but not by the deadline.

The fate of billions of Bitcoin transactions depends on the ETF’s decision, making it one of the most influential decisions in recent years. Funding rates for bullish bets on Bitcoin hit a record high earlier this week, data shows, indicating a growing appetite to gain exposure to the asset regardless of the associated costs.

｜Translation: CoinDesk JAPAN
｜Edited by: Toshihiko Inoue
｜Image: Polymarket
｜Original text: ‘Deniers Are Crypto’s Flat Earthers’ as Markets Flash 83% Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval