Bitcoin ETF approval sells the facts, and there is a feeling of running out of materials | Contributed by a bitbank analyst

Virtual currency market prices from 1/6 (Sat) to 1/12 (Fri) this week

Mr. Hasegawa, an analyst at Bitbank, a major domestic exchange, illustrates this week’s Bitcoin chart and deciphers the future outlook.

1. Bitcoin on-chain data
2. bitbank contribution

Bitcoin on-chain data

Number of BTC transactions

Number of BTC transactions (monthly)

Number of active addresses

Number of active addresses (monthly)

BTC mining pool remittance destination

Exchange/Other services

bitbank analyst analysis (contributed by Tomoya Hasegawa)

Weekly report from 1/6 (Sat) to 1/12 (Fri):

Bitcoin (BTC) against the yen this week also rose, albeit with fluctuations, and at one point recovered to 7 million yen for the first time in November 2021.

As the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to approve a physical Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approaches on the 10th, expectations for approval are rising as companies applying for an ETF have announced their fees since the beginning of the week. , BTC recovered 6.7 million yen.

On the 9th, when the SEC announced the approval of a physical Bitcoin ETF on X (formerly Twitter), the market price briefly dipped to 7 million yen, but in fact there was a sell-off, and it plummeted by about 400,000 yen. However, when SEC Chairman Gensler announced that the commission’s X account had been hijacked and that it did not approve ETFs, the market suddenly rebounded.

However, as a result of this, there was a sense of caution that “there would be some selling after approval” of the ETF, and BTC started the following day on the 10th with a heavy upward trend, but by the time US time arrived, 7 Cboe transactions had been made ahead of the SEC’s decision. In addition to reporting to the committee that the ETF was allowed to be listed, altos, led by Ether (ETF), gained strength, and BTC returned to around 6.8 million yen.

In the early hours of the 11th, the SEC approved all 11 physical Bitcoin ETFs, and BTC briefly tested a lower price, but it has remained at around 6.9 million yen since then, probably because they had sold only after receiving the false information from the previous day. I rebelled until

However, since the approval of the ETF was already factored in, the buying did not continue after that, and BTC had a heavy top price on the 11th, Tokyo time.

On the other hand, on the 11th, the first day of ETF trading, the market recovered after receiving a report that IBIT (BlackRock’s ETF) was performing well in the pre-market. Furthermore, when the U.S. market opened, it was reported that the total trading value of Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $500 million within the first few minutes, and the market price briefly recovered to 7.1 million yen.

However, on this day, the decline in US stocks due to the upward swing in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December weighed on the market, and BTC quickly canceled out its gains.

Figure 1: BTC vs. Yen chart (1 hour timeframe) Source: Created from bitbank.cc

A physical Bitcoin ETF was finally approved in the United States, but the market performance was more lackluster than expected.

After the approval, we expected a “sudden fall due to confirmed selling,” but as the misinformation from the previous day caused positions in the derivatives market to be liquidated to some extent, and selling due to caution preceded the approval, there were no major movements after the ETF was actually approved. It looks good.

It has been pointed out that there were many celebratory buying transactions on the first day of trading for ETFs, and while the strength of ETFs will likely support the market price in the near term, its influence will gradually wane.

On the other hand, although there was an upward surprise in the U.S. CPI this week, there is no sign that expectations of interest rate cuts in March will fade in the federal funds rate futures market, and the market consensus seems to be that “inflation will remain high for a while.” is.

It is true that there is a possibility that economic indicators in December will be stronger than before due to increases in consumption and employment in the run-up to the year-end sales season, so there is no need to be pessimistic about this week’s CPI results.

However, the CPI index in December was 3.4%, and it remains unclear whether it will fall to the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2% by March. In addition, the bond market is reacting to the upward movement of the CPI by selling (interest rates are rising), and the high inflation indicators are not favorable for the BTC market.

Although the mood is auspicious with the approval of ETFs this week, there seems to be a sense that the market is running out of material, so perhaps more material is needed for the BTC market to reach new highs.

Contributor: Tomoya HasegawaYuya Hasegawa

After graduating from a British graduate school, he worked as an analyst for the FinTech industry and virtual currency market at a venture company made up of people from financial institutions. Since 2019, he has been a market analyst at BitBank Co., Ltd. He has provided comments to major domestic financial media and has contributed to many overseas media.

connection:bitbank_markets official website

Previous report:Counting down to Bitcoin ETF approval, beware of downside risk in the near term

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