Bitcoin ETF could receive $100 billion inflows if approved: Standard Chartered | CoinDesk JAPAN

As the market awaits a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision on the filing of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), analysts predict that inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could rise to $1 billion (approximately $1,450 billion) over the next three months. The company predicts that it will far exceed 100 billion yen (exchanged at 145 yen to the dollar) and could exceed $100 billion by the end of the year.

Expected inflow of 50-100 billion yen

Standard Chartered, which predicts Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 by the end of the year, expects large inflows if the SEC approves a physical ETF.

Standard Chartered said in a report that if a Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, it is expected to attract between $50 billion and $100 billion in inflows this year. This means that between 437,000 and 1.32 million new Bitcoins will be held by ETFs by the end of 2024.

If inflows materialize as expected, Bitcoin could rise to nearly $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Expected to develop faster than gold ETP

Standard Chartered compared the Bitcoin ETF to America’s first gold ETP (exchange traded financial product), which was launched in November 2004. After that, the price of gold more than quadrupled in seven years.

Bitcoin is up about 155% last year and 6% so far in 2024, according to Messari data. Standard Chartered points out that Bitcoin has the potential to achieve similar gains to gold after the approval of a physical ETF, but over a shorter period (1-2 years). “We believe the Bitcoin ETF market will develop more rapidly.”

Other inflow forecasts

Will McDonough, chairman and founder of Corestone Capital, also predicts there will be strong demand for a Bitcoin ETF if it is approved. McDonough expects to see about $1 billion worth of inflows by the end of the first quarter of this year.

“The barrier of self-custody has kept many investors away from this asset class,” McDonough said. Even just 1% of Bitcoin’s price trend means an exponential increase in the dynamics of the investor base that can be allocated to this growing alternative asset class (given that Bitcoin’s supply remains constant). I think it’s going to be just as big.”

Crypto fund Galaxy Digital predicted in an October report that the ETF is expected to receive at least $14.4 billion in inflows in its first year of issuance. “Inflows could increase by $27 billion by the second year and $39 billion by the third year,” the report said.

Additionally, many asset management companies have applied for Ethereum spot ETFs, and the final decision deadline is May. Standard Chartered said in a report that it expects the SEC to approve an Ethereum ETF.

｜Translation and editing: Rinan Hayashi
｜Image: Wance Paleri/Unsplash
｜Original text: Bitcoin ETFs Could See Up to $100B in Inflows If SEC Approves: Standard Chartered