Bitcoin in Cool-Off Mode, Analysts Say Cycle May Stretch Into 2026

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Bitcoin is hovering near $103,700. There is growing uncertainty in its price action as global tensions rise. Retail sentiment is also weakening, adding to the pressure on BTC. But the current dip may just be a cool-off phase, and not the end of the bull cycle.

Retail Sentiment Hits April Lows

Crypto analytics firm Santiment shared recently that the retail sentiment has turned sharply negative, hitting its lowest point since early April. This is similar to levels seen in April, just before Bitcoin rebounded. With bearish comments rising, the panic could signal a rebound. 

The Fed rates are also steady, which has kept BTC stuck between $100K and $ 110 K. On-chain data shows that whales are accumulating while traders pull back.

A Healthy Cool-Off Phase?

The crypto market is currently in a slow correction phase. Altcoins have been declining since December, while Bitcoin remains stuck between $100K and $ 107K. Ethereum is struggling below $3,000, and overall trading volume is dropping, which are clear signs that retail investors are staying out for now.

However, there have been no major crashes or negative events. This is a typical cooling-off period within a larger uptrend, similar to what happened in 2017 and 2021. These phases often follow major rallies and can last a few months.

Looking ahead, there is a positive macro signal too. The Fed may cut rates in September, with a 71.8% chance according to CME FedWatch. This could boost crypto markets, and even the anticipation of rate cuts can lift sentiment and bring life back to risk assets. 

Cycle May Extend Into 2026

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal also believes that the current crypto market closely resembles 2017, when Bitcoin rose steadily before exploding in December. He notes that macro conditions indicate that this cycle could be longer than expected, possibly extending into Q2 2026.

Many long traders were recently wiped out on Binance as open interest dropped. This “cleanup” happened right after the Fed paused rate hikes. With fewer traders now in risky positions and past trends showing Bitcoin often rises after such events, CryptoQuant analysts see this as a potential setup for a Bitcoin bounce.