Bitcoin maintains over $ 30,000 ── Good performance in July in the past, options expiring soon | CoinDesk JAPAN | Coin Desk Japan

Could Bitcoin Go Higher?

On the 26th of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is near $ 30,165. It is down from last week’s high of over $31,300 in a year, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours.

The price of bitcoin rose after several major asset management companies, including BlackRock, filed applications for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, the momentum is dampened as investors begin to realize that SEC approval will take months or more and that macroeconomic data remains uncertain.

Increased in July in the last 3 years

Even so, Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, a crypto asset (virtual currency) service provider, said in a report on the 25th that the rate of increase in July over the past three years was 24%. , 20%, and 27%, pointing to a historically strong month.

According to Thielen, bitcoin is likely to rise 10-20% over the next 30 days, possibly reaching $33,000-$36,000 by August.

Thielen noted that bitcoin has seen a pattern of rising about $10,000 this year followed by a $5,000 drop. The first was the turmoil caused by the US banking crisis in March, when Bitcoin rose to $25,000 before falling to $20,000. The second time was in June, when the SEC sued crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase, dropping from $30,000 to $25,000.

“Expectations of Bitcoin ETF approval have driven many US institutional and retail investors into the space, and now appear to be aiming for $35,000.”

Earlier this year, Matrixport predicted that Bitcoin will reach $45,000 by the end of the year. Thielen said bitcoin’s strongest rally came during US trading hours, “showing that US institutional investors are buying bitcoin while other regions are sluggish. The claim that ‘crypto assets are dead in America’ seems to be a misunderstanding.”

Option Expiration Potential for Price Rise

Additionally, with Bitcoin options expiring this Friday, Bitcoin prices could rise further, or soon after expiry.

Omkar Godbole, Co-Editor of Markets at CoinDesk, said, “If Bitcoin gains momentum above $30,000 as it nears maturity, dealers will continue to sell Bitcoin in the spot and futures markets. I will buy it,” he said. “It could lead to excessive price increases, known as the gamma squeeze or slingshot effect. On the flip side, dealers will be forced to sell if prices drop below $30,000,” he said.

Other crypto assets and tech stocks also fell

Ethereum (ETH) is also down about 2.2% over the past 24 hours, near $1,854. Katie Talati, head of research at cryptocurrency hedge fund Arca, said in an interview with CoinDesk TV that Ethereum’s requirements for validators on the Ethereum blockchain have increased from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH. A developer’s proposal to change to “won’t necessarily affect the price of Ethereum,” he said of the proposal, calling it “unlikely.”

Most of the other major crypto assets also fell. Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) both fell more than 4%. While the bright spots are few, bitcoin cash (BCH), a hard fork from the bitcoin blockchain, surged nearly 16% to a new all-time high. Bitcoin Cash is up more than 100% in a week as it becomes one of four crypto assets on institutional-backed crypto exchange EDX Markets.

The US stock market got off to a tough start on Monday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index falling 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries and safe-haven gold rose.

Bitcoin ETF Approvals Take Time, But Promising

Talati was cautiously optimistic about the investor enthusiasm seen in the first 10 days after the Bitcoin ETF application, stating: “The big problem is that ETF approval, if it does happen, is still some time away. What most people don’t understand,” he said. He also noted that “the SEC has taken a very strong anti-crypto stance.”

“There may be some pressure on regulators for approval just because BlackRock filed,” Talati added. It is exciting in terms of access to the coin,” he added.

｜Translation: coindesk JAPAN
｜Editing: Rinan Hayashi
| Image: CoinDesk Indices
｜Original: Bitcoin Holds Above $30K as Investors Await Historically Strong July, Eye Options Expiry