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After visiting lows of around $112,000, pressured by hawkish remarks during last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Bitcoin continued its recovery today but fell short of reclaiming the $115,000 support level.
The total crypto market cap recovered from a two-week low, rising a little over 1% to $3.84 trillion during late Asian trading hours.
Market sentiment also returned to greed territory after slipping into neutral over the weekend, as Monday’s recovery helped restore investor confidence, but only slightly.
Altcoins were the bigger beneficiaries of the market rebound, with the total altcoin market posting a significant surge over the past 24 hours and gains spread broadly across major assets.
Is the Bitcoin bull run over?
Bitcoin remained under pressure as cryptocurrency investment products saw the sharpest outflows last week, totalling $404 million, according to CoinShares data published Monday.
The losses came as cryptocurrency investment vehicles broke a 15-week streak of inflows, reflecting a broader cooling in market sentiment after the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Despite beginning the week on a strong note, with $883 million in inflows, the trend reversed midweek.
Analysts at CoinShares attributed the shift to hawkish remarks from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and stronger-than-expected US economic data.
The report noted that some of the movement may reflect minor profit-taking, especially after crypto funds recorded over $12 billion in net inflows over the past month, half of the total for the year to date.
Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell further reduced the odds of a September interest rate cut, which fell to 40% from 63% before the meeting, according to market-based probabilities.
That policy pivot dented risk appetite and pushed Bitcoin into a retracement phase entering August, historically one of its worst-performing months.
Data from CoinGlass shows Bitcoin’s median return in August stands at -7.49%, while September offers little relief.
Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has posted losses in eight of those September.
Still, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. In a research note released Friday, Matrixport suggested that Bitcoin could regain upward momentum once the US Congress returns from summer recess.
The firm highlighted the potential for fiscal policy uncertainty to act as a catalyst, echoing patterns seen in previous cycles where government standoffs boosted demand for hard assets.
Meanwhile, market analytics firm 10x Research presented a more nuanced view.
In its Aug. 4 report, the firm said Bitcoin’s recent weakness aligns with seasonal trends but may also signal deeper macroeconomic undercurrents.
Revised US labour data now paints a softer jobs picture than previously assumed, which could challenge the Fed’s “resilient economy” stance heading into the September meeting.
This setup mirrors conditions from Q3 2024, when the Fed made a surprise 50-basis-point rate cut in response to early labour market weakness.
That policy shift came after a broad market downturn, which later reversed following confirmation of the cut.
If similar dynamics play out, Bitcoin may stage a recovery, not from internal catalysts, but from shifting macro sentiment.
According to 10x, the critical variable will be how the Fed interprets asset price corrections, particularly in equities, as signals of underlying economic stress.
That interpretation may ultimately determine the direction of monetary policy in the weeks ahead, and with it, Bitcoin’s next move.
Will Bitcoin go up?
According to analytics firm Swissblock, Bitcoin’s rally has entered a consolidation phase, with bullish momentum fading in early August.
Bitcoin price momentum chart. Source: Swissblock on X.
The firm compared the current price action to the slow build-up seen in June, when upside pressure returned only after weeks of subdued action.
“BTC consolidates here, and bearish pressure fades,” the firm noted on X. “Then, with time and patience, upside reignites. No breakdown. Just a pause.”
Despite prices holding near the $90,000–$100,000 range, Swissblock’s momentum profile flipped into negative territory last month.
Historically, such resets have preceded major upside moves, particularly when sell-side pressure begins to wane.
CryptoQuant analyst Maarten Regterschot shared a similar outlook, telling crypto media that he does not expect Bitcoin to break below $112,000.
Instead, he sees a “chopsolidation” phase ahead, where prices move sideways following a wave of selling by short-term holders.
According to Regterschot, the lack of a deeper correction suggests the market is digesting recent gains rather than entering a new downtrend.
Still, some market watchers remain split on what comes next.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades, for instance, pointed out that Bitcoin typically sets either its high or low for the month in the first week.
With the August high currently at $116,000—a level Daan Crypto Trades noted as unusually small for a monthly wick—he warned that a larger move is likely in the coming weeks.
$BTC Has continued its streak of setting the high or low within the first week of the month. We’ll have to see if August is going to be any different. What we do know is that the current monthly high ($116K) has a very low chance of holding as we’ve never seen a monthly wick
“The current move from high to low is just 3.6%,” he wrote on X. “The smallest monthly low-to-high range in the past four years has been about 10%. This doesn’t say anything about direction, but volatility should increase.”
That volatility has affected investor positioning according to some market watchers, but although short-term holders are facing mounting pressure, long-term demand remains intact.
Contributor Darkfost highlighted the Apparent Demand metric in a Quicktake post, showing that demand remains positive, with over 160,000 BTC accumulated over the past 30 days.
“There is no major sign of concern from demand-side indicators, despite recent price volatility,” the analyst said.
Accumulation wallets—addresses that only receive Bitcoin and never send—added another 50,000 BTC during the past month.
Meanwhile, over-the-counter (OTC) desk holdings have surpassed 500,000 BTC, up from 145,000 in 2021.
These indicators suggest that institutional and long-term investors continue to view current price levels as a buying opportunity.
“Whether we look at short-term or long-term demand, the picture remains broadly positive,” Darkfost concluded.
Simultaneously, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore noted that Bitcoin successfully tested former resistance at $112,000, which is now acting as support.
“If risk sentiment stabilises and Bitcoin holds the $112,000 to $110,000 range, a retest of the all-time high is possible,” he said in recent public comments.
However, while acknowledging that Bitcoin could retest its all-time high if risk sentiment holds, the analyst cautioned that $125,000 remains a major monthly resistance level, adding that there doesn’t appear to be “the catalyst for that to break right now.”
A more cautious tone came from trader Merlijn, who warned that Bitcoin may be entering the final parabolic phase of its current market cycle.
Using a Market Maker Model chart, he projected a final surge to the $160,000–$220,000 range, followed by a significant correction.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin bulls were retesting the $115,000 support level. A successful reclaim could help reinforce the ongoing recovery.
Altcoins lead crypto market recovery
The total market capitalisation of the altcoin market hit $1.54 trillion, rising 5.5% over the past 24 hours.
This rally coincided with the Altcoin Season Index, a closely followed metric used by traders to measure the onset of an altcoin season, climbing back up to 43, as more altcoins among the top 100 crypto assets began outperforming Bitcoin in terms of price performance.
Ethereum (ETH) continued its recovery for the second straight day, rallying 5.4% to reclaim the $3,600 level, a key support that multiple analysts believe it must hold above to sustain momentum for its next leg higher.
Other large-cap altcoins such as XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) also held gains ranging between 2-5%.
MemeCore (M) emerged as the strongest gainer among leading altcoins today, posting standout gains of nearly 30%.
Meanwhile, Mantle (MNT) and Litecoin (LTC) also posted notable gains of 14.3% and approximately 10%, respectively.
Source: CoinMarketCap
MemeCore: MemeCore’s (M) rally was fueled by a short squeeze, as many traders betting against the token were forced to close their positions when the price unexpectedly surged.
The squeeze triggered a wave of liquidations that added further buying pressure, accelerating the move.
Additional momentum came from renewed anticipation surrounding the upcoming MemeX Liquidity Festival, a trading competition that briefly went live in a pre-fly phase last week but was subsequently postponed.
Mantle: Mantle’s rally today was driven by renewed interest after the project shared strong network growth figures.
Notably, the total value locked on the network has risen 47% to $1.4 billion over the past month.
During the same period, stablecoin supply on the Mantle and daily active addresses on the network have been increasing sharply.
These trends point to growing user engagement and deeper liquidity on the network, key signals that often precede an uptick in momentum.
Litecoin: Litecoin registered modest gains supported by an uptick in its futures open interest. Typically, this trend means more traders are getting involved and adding liquidity.
At the same time, its funding rate has stayed positive for over a month, suggesting most traders have been maintaining long positions.
Whale interest has increased in recent trading sessions, with wallets holding between 10,000 and 1 million tokens showing signs of renewed accumulation since July 30.
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