Bitcoin’s Worst Case Scenario Explained

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Popular analyst Rekt Capital took to his latest analysis and discussed the potential worst-case scenarios for Bitcoin, focusing on two main perspectives: the downtrending channel and the reaccumulation structure.

Downtrending Channel

Bitcoin is currently in a downtrending channel, which has an upper resistance line and a lower support line. Recently, the price rejected from the top but reclaimed the bottom as support. This is important because it shows that the previous downtrend might be reversing.

Historically, this lower support area has been a good buying opportunity. If Bitcoin can hold above this support and reclaim the $64,000-$65,000 range, it could signal a potential rally. Previous rejections from the channel top have become shallower over time, suggesting that the resistance is weakening.

Reaccumulation Phase

In addition, Bitcoin is in a reaccumulation phase that has lasted since mid-March. When the price dips below the established low, buyers have consistently stepped in, pushing the price back up. This shows strong demand.

This phase has historically preceded breakouts, typically occurring 154 to 161 days after the halving event. Since this reaccumulation phase is extended but still ahead of schedule, it suggests that a breakout could be on the cards.

Downside Deviations Lead to Upside Opportunities:

Historically, whenever Bitcoin experiences a downside deviation (price dropping below a certain level), it often leads to an opportunity for upward movement afterward. The analyst said that breaking back above the reaccumulation range low—which had previously acted as both resistance and support—could signal a potential rally.

Support and Resistance:

The reaccumulation range is critical. If Bitcoin can successfully retest this level and hold it as support, it may lead to an upward trend within the downtrending channel. A reclaim of the $64,000-$65,000 range would be pivotal for pushing towards higher targets, like the low $70,000s.

If Bitcoin drops below $58,000 level, it may signal trouble and could lead to further declines. $53,000, this level is considered a lower boundary for the current price structure. Falling below this could indicate a more bearish trend.