3 weeks ago
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Bitcoin is surging near record levels, touching $73,000, as cryptocurrency investors eagerly eye November’s US election and the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
With the recent market rally boosting the global crypto cap to $2.45 trillion, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum and optimistic projections are gaining traction.
Veteran traders and experts, including Peter Brandt and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, now see a potential pathway to six-figure BTC valuations driven by increased demand for value storage, investor confidence, and economic factors outside of a traditional dollar collapse.
1/ A financial advisor asked me a great question over dinner last week: Does the U.S. dollar need to collapse for bitcoin to hit $200,000? The answer is “no.” Here’s why…
B I T C O I N $BTC There are numerous ways to determine targets. One variable is whether semi-log or linear scale is used Target of 94,000 is measured move of triangle projected from breakout level on semi-log ⬇️ 🧵 1/3
Bitcoin’s remarkable rise underscores its status as a premier store-of-value asset.
While often seen as a hedge against dollar depreciation, Hougan argues that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 without needing the dollar to falter significantly.
He points to increased investor demand and persistent U.S. government spending, which has driven national debt over $35 trillion, as underlying forces supporting BTC’s growth.
This outlook resonates with crypto bulls, particularly with the looming Bitcoin halving, which is set to halve miner rewards and intensify Bitcoin’s scarcity.
The strong rally has further invigorated Bitcoin miners, despite a challenging Q3 marked by volatility and economic pressures.
A surge in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and renewed optimism following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September helped BTC rebound from its August low of $49,100 to over $63,250.
Top performing sectors YTD: Memes (+219%) AI (+217%) BRC-20 (+217%) RWA (+134%) DePIN (+73%) Worst performing sectors YTD: SocialFi (-57%) ZK (-36%) Metaverse (-30%) Governance Tokens (-25%) L2s (-16%)
This has spurred mining operations, leading to a 4.5% increase in hash rate as miners ramped up their computing power.
However, with miner revenues down 29% to $2.6 billion in Q3, the sector remains vulnerable to the pressures of the halving event, requiring more efficient operations or higher BTC prices to stay profitable.
The November 5 US election is also in focus for Bitcoin investors.
Some analysts predict that a Trump victory could act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin prices, while a win by Vice President Kamala Harris might introduce a brief market correction.
Hougan and others argue that BTC’s broader adoption and price strength will continue regardless of election outcomes, driven by ongoing supply constraints and growing store-of-value appeal.
Analysts, including H.C. Wainwright & Co., see recent market dynamics as an opportunity for investors, noting that public miners’ market capitalization has dipped 7%, creating potentially favorable buying conditions.
Yet, as BTC edges near its March all-time high, historical data suggests some volatility could be ahead, especially with the uncertain political landscape.
In this shifting environment, investors remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, as it nears historic highs and edges closer to becoming a mature financial asset.
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