Cardano whales are selling into weakness: is ADA about to lose $0.173 support?

Cardano (ADA) trades near an important support zone on Monday after suffering a correction of more than 10% during the previous week.

The decline is being reinforced by selling among some of Cardano’s largest holders. Bearish derivatives positioning and weakening momentum indicators also suggest that traders remain cautious.

ADA could extend its losses if sellers push the token below the key support area around $0.173.

Large Cardano holders reduce their exposure

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data supports a bearish near-term outlook as several categories of large ADA holders continue to sell.

Wallets holding between one million and 10 million ADA, together with those controlling between 10 million and 100 million tokens, have collectively offloaded approximately 200 million ADA since August 11.

The reduction indicates that some of Cardano’s largest investors are lowering their exposure while the token trades close to critical support.

Smaller whales have moved in the opposite direction. Addresses holding between 100,000 and one million ADA accumulated approximately 10 million tokens over the same period.

However, this buying represents only a small portion of the tokens distributed by larger wallets. The imbalance suggests that demand from smaller whales has not been sufficient to absorb the selling pressure created by top-tier holders.

Cardano’s derivatives market also reflects weakening confidence among traders.

According to CoinGlass, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.92 on Monday, close to its lowest level in more than a month.

A ratio below one means there are more short positions than long positions, indicating that traders are increasingly betting on further price declines.

The negative positioning is also visible in Cardano’s funding rate. CoinGlass data shows that ADA’s Open Interest-weighted funding rate turned negative on Sunday and stood at -0.0018% on Monday. 

A negative funding rate means short-position holders are paying traders with long positions, generally reflecting bearish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.

Cardano technical forecast: ADA struggles below key moving averages

Cardano trades at approximately $0.175 on Monday and remains beneath several important Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The 50-day EMA at $0.179 provides immediate resistance. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $0.194 closely aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.195, creating a stronger resistance cluster.

ADA’s inability to reclaim these levels keeps the short-term technical outlook bearish and suggests that attempted recoveries could attract renewed selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index remains below the neutral level of 50 at 35, showing that sellers retain a momentum advantage.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is also in negative territory, reinforcing the cautious outlook.

Cardano’s immediate support sits at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.173.

This area also aligns with the point where ADA previously broke below its trendline, increasing its technical significance.

A daily close below the $0.173 support zone could confirm a continuation of the decline and expose the strategic horizontal support level at $0.150.

On the upside, a sustained break above the 50-day EMA at $0.179 would offer the first sign that selling pressure is easing.

However, Cardano would still need to recover above the $0.194–$0.195 resistance cluster to strengthen its recovery prospects. 

A successful breakout could bring the higher resistance levels at $0.213 and $0.231 into focus.

The medium-term outlook would remain constrained even in that scenario, with the 200-day EMA at $0.249 representing a major obstacle to a broader bullish reversal.

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