Countdown to the next Bitcoin half-life less than a year away, market trends and expert predictions?

BTC Halving in 2024

Less than a year until the next half-life of the crypto asset (virtual currency) Bitcoin (BTC).

According to CoinWarz, the halving of BTC, which reaches block number 840,000, is calculated to occur around midnight on April 28, 2024 (Japan time). The forecast date is an estimate and will continue to fluctuate due to block height dependence.

Bitcoin halving is an event where Bitcoin mining rewards are halved. To prevent inflation, Bitcoin is set to halve the amount of BTC given as a reward to miners every time the number of blocks reaches 210,000 (approximately every four years).

The maximum number of Bitcoins issued is set at 21 million BTC, and once this limit is reached, no new Bitcoins will be generated. At the time of writing, 19,361,862 BTC (about 92%) have already been mined, so there are only a few Bitcoins left to be issued.

Each halving slows down the pace of new bitcoin issuance, resulting in bitcoin scarcity increasing as it approaches the cap. This mechanism maintains the value of Bitcoin and plays a role in increasing its reliability as a currency.

Bitcoin has had four halvings so far. The current reward amount is 6.25BTC. After the fifth halving in April 2024, the mining reward will be 3.125 BTC.

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The impact on BTC price is

In past halvings, it has been confirmed that the price tends to rise after the halving. For example, before the last halving in May 2020, the BTC price was around 930,000 yen ($8,800), but in April 2021, it will be around 8.24 million yen ($60,000). Soared 500%.

Dollar denominated BTC price transition (Tether: USDT) Source: Trading view

In the case of the halving on July 9, 2016, the price of Bitcoin at that time was around 85,000 yen ($800), but after experiencing the virtual currency bubble, an exponential rise was seen. At the end of 2017, the BTC price hit $20,000 (¥2.2 million).

However, it should be noted that the halving is not the only factor affecting price. It can be said that the situation is very different now, as the market size of Bitcoin has expanded incomparably to four years ago, and it is more susceptible to macro markets such as the stock market.

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Before & after the halving, you will hear a lot of “why didn’t the price move (everyday)?”#bitcoin price:
1st halving, 2012 Nov: $12
2nd halving, 2016 Jul: $658
3rd halving, May 2020: $8,800
4th 2024: …

History does NOT predict the future. But zoom out… https://t.co/979tpNq9kf

— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) April 20, 2023

After crashing to around ¥2.17 million ($15,800) in November 2022, Bitcoin is now trading near ¥3.8 million ($30,000). Some market analysts believe the price could rise further towards the halving.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Douglas Coutts points out that bitcoin’s price movement is similar to past cycles, with a tendency to bottom out 12 to 18 months before the halving. The current Bitcoin price is expected to reach 6.87 million yen ($50,000) by April 2024, assuming that the impact of the halving in 2024 is factored in by about 50%.

Jacob Joseph, an analyst at CCData, a data provider for digital assets, estimates that, given past market trends, about 350 days, assuming the November 2022 FTX collapse is the bottom of the current Bitcoin price cycle. He expressed the view that the “accumulation period” of This accumulation period is the period before investors start buying the asset and the price gradually rises, and refers to the quiet period before the market bottom is formed and a new uptrend begins.

However, he said that while bitcoin could hit new highs in the future, it is unlikely to grow as quickly as in previous cycles as the market grows in size and competition from other digital assets increases. He also says no.

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