Crypto recap: Bitcoin trades range-bound, S and AAVE lead altcoin gains

Bitcoin traded in a tight range between $95,880 and $97,206 today as traders continued to exercise caution ahead of key economic data set to be released this week.

Market activity was muted, with overall cryptocurrency market capitalisation holding steady above $3.34 trillion.

Trader sentiment was neutral when writing, with the crypto fear and greed index at 51, down three points from the previous day.

The altcoin market mirrored Bitcoin’s subdued movement, with a handful of top altcoins in the green, though only one recorded double-digit gains.

Why is Bitcoin down today?

Bitcoin’s lack of momentum today is largely tied to macro uncertainty and cautious trading ahead of key economic data.

With the Federal Reserve minutes set to reinforce a hawkish stance, traders are holding back, wary of any signals that could push rate cut expectations even further down the road.

Inflation’s persistence has already shifted sentiment, with markets now seeing almost no chance of a March rate cut—just 2.5% odds according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

That means tighter liquidity conditions could stick around longer than expected, which tends to lead to reduced risk appetite across markets, including crypto.

Adding to the uncertainty, several senior Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week.

If their tone aligns with the Fed’s cautious approach, it could lead to further uncertainty and keep Bitcoin pinned in its current range, according to several market pundits.

One thing that confirms the current fear in the market is the latest data on crypto investment flows.

Digital asset funds saw $415 million in outflows over the past trading week, with Bitcoin leading the sell-off at $430 million in outflows, according to a Feb. 17 report from CoinShares.

CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, attributed the outflows to macroeconomic concerns, particularly Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments on rate cuts, alongside higher-than-expected inflation data from last week.

What’s next for Bitcoin?

According to some experts, the current scenario could position Bitcoin for a major rally in the coming weeks. 

A recent report from CryptoQuant states that demand for Bitcoin continues to remain high despite its poor performance over the past week. 

According to analyst Darkfost, the 30-day moving average (DMA) of exchange inflows and outflows indicates that Bitcoin is experiencing its first “high demand” phase since the end of the 2022 bear market.

Historically, when this metric enters a high-demand zone, Bitcoin has often seen a short-term upward move, Darkfost noted.

If the trend holds, BTC could be primed for a breakout once macro-driven uncertainty eases and traders regain confidence.

Some analysts also posted bullish targets for Bitcoin this week.

According to analyst Tracer Cj, Bitcoin could be eyeing $102,000 as a near-term BTC price ceiling, with a potential wick up to $105,000 if momentum builds.

According to a corresponding chart shared by the analyst Bitcoin remains in a local range, with key support between $95,200 and $96,200.

He noted that a liquidity sweep in this region could trigger a higher low formation, setting the stage for an upward push.

On a similar note, The Cryptomist, another analyst, also expects Bitcoin to push higher, targeting the $105,000 region.

She highlighted a key support level around the current price range, suggesting that Bitcoin is holding within a symmetrical triangle formation.

If price action respects this structure, a breakout toward $105,000 could be the next likely move.

When writing, Bitcoin was trading 7.96% below the expected target at $96,637, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours.

Altcoin market recap

The altcoin market sentiment continued to improve over the past day, with the Altcoin Season Index rising by 5 points to 40 since yesterday.

Most gains, however, were limited to single digits, as the total altcoin market cap rose modestly by 0.49% to $1.436 trillion.

The top performing altcoins for the day were:

Sonic

Sonic (S) rallied over 15% in the past day amid high trading volume.

At the time of writing, its trading volume had increased by 117%, while its market cap reached approximately $1.9 billion.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Today’s gains were triggered primarily after defi protocol Frax Finance, went live on the Sonic blockchain.

With this, traders can now bridge assets like the Frax stablecoin to the Sonic blockchain.

Momentum was further strengthened after reports emerged that the blockchain network had surpassed competitors to become the fastest-chain in terms of Max Theoractical TPS, according to Chainspect data. 

Aave

Aave (AAVE) was up over 8% in the past 24 hours, while its trading volume was up 162.35%.

Its market cap increased a little over 7.9% during the same period, placing it at $4.14 billion.

Source: CoinMarketCap

AAVE rallied to an intraday high of $277, hitting levels last seen during the first week of February.

While there was no apparent reason behind the altcoin’s rally today, some analysts remarked that AAVE was rebounding after hitting a local bottom.

There was also heavy demand for AAVE in the derivatives market, as open interest surged 25.54% in the past 24 hours.

Additionally, the long/short ratio remained above 1, indicating that more traders were positioning for the upside.

Cardano

Cardano (ADA) rallied over 6% today to hit a seven-day high of $0.8262, extending its weekly gains to over 17%.

Its market cap stood at a little over $29 billion at press time, while trading with a 24-hour trading volume of $835.5 million.

Source: CoinMarketCap

ADA continued to benefit from the hype around the chances of a potential spot Caradano ETF in the US getting approved under the current administration. 

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