Ethereum: Dubious Speculation – Is It Still Following Historical Patterns?

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Ethereum’s recent price moves have left traders questioning its path: Will it follow past patterns from 2016 and 2019, or is a new trend emerging? According to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, key ETH/BTC and ETH/USD levels are flashing mixed signals, leaving traders wondering what’s next. Could a breakout be on the horizon, or further declines ahead? Let’s dive in!

ETH/BTC Pair Analysis: A Key Indicator

When analyzing Ethereum, it’s crucial to first look at its performance against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC). ETH’s Bitcoin pair recently dropped below the 0.04 level, signaling a shift in perspective. Historically, after ETH/BTC breaks down, it tends to bottom within 8-10 weeks. The recent low in ETH/BTC aligns with this time frame, which could suggest that the bottom is near or already in.

However, Cowen warns of conflicting signals. For example, ETH/BTC previously bottomed when the Federal Reserve shifted from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), a move that hasn’t occurred yet. 

This raises the possibility that ETH/BTC might find a temporary bounce, only to revisit lower levels before a sustained recovery.

ETH/USD: Following 2016 and 2019?

Interestingly, despite the uncertainty in the ETH/BTC pair, Cowen’s analysis points out that ETH/USD has closely mirrored its 2016 and 2019 patterns. Meanwhile, both 2016 and 2024 have seen green months in the first quarter, followed by a red April and a recovery in May.

Similarly, June, July, and August were red in both 2016 and 2024, signaling a summer lull.

If history repeats itself, September could end with a green month for ETH, mirroring 2016 and 2019. The bigger question is whether the final phase of the 2016 pattern will play out. In that scenario, ETH saw three consecutive red months (October, November, December) before breaking out in the following year.

Ethereum’s Price Action

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,673 after a strong 10% rally over the past ten days, breaking its dull performance since the August 5 crash. But can this momentum last?

Investors should keep an eye on the key resistance level of $2,702 from the September 23 high. If buyers can’t push past this point, a price drop could be on the horizon. However, with October historically being a positive month, this dip might offer a buying opportunity, setting the stage for a potential retest of the $2,820 level.