Nikkei average rises despite entering recession, US stock index hits new high | 16th Financial Tankan

9 months ago 58

Traditional finance *2/16 (Friday)

  • NY Dow: 38,773 +0.9%
  • Nasdaq: 15,906 +0.3%
  • Nikkei average: 38,157 +1.2%
  • USD/JPY: 149.9 0.0%
  • NVIDIA: $726 -1.6%
  • Amazon: $169.8 -0.7%

Today's NY Dow continued to rise, and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. The recent upside in CPI data briefly shocked the market, but last night's weak January retail sales results appear to have eased some investor fears about overheating consumer spending.

Although AI and semiconductor stocks fell today, banks and energy stocks continued to drive the index's growth.

Alphabet's stock price (-2%) fell after reports that OpenAI, developed by ChatGPT, is developing a web search engine to compete with Google.

On the 16th, OpenAI also announced “Sora,” a tool that automatically creates detailed 60-second videos from text.

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Today's main market materials are as follows:.

  • U.S. retail sales in January: Turned negative for the first time in 10 months.
  • The US dollar sold and US Treasury yields fell on retail sales data.
  • Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) from October to December 2023: The economy has entered a recession with negative growth for two consecutive quarters (expected to be more than +1%). It has been overtaken by Germany to become the world's fourth largest economy. This data raises the possibility that the Bank of Japan will continue with its large-scale monetary easing policy.
  • Nikkei Average: Despite the weak GDP results, the Nikkei Average on the 15th hit a post-bubble high of 38,000 on a closing price basis for the first time in 34 years. Benefiting from the weaker yen, stock prices rose, mainly in companies oriented to foreign demand, such as electrical equipment and machinery.

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Important economic indicators/events from this week onwards

  • 2/16 (Friday) 22:30 U.S. January PPI (Wholesale Price Index)
  • 2/22 (Thursday) 22:30 Number of new unemployment insurance applications for the previous week in the US
  • 2/26 (Monday) 24:00 Number of new homes sold in January
  • 2/27 (Tue) 8:30am Japan January National Consumer Price Index
  • 2/28 (Wed) 22:30 U.S. Q4 real gross domestic product (GDP) revised value
  • 2/29 (Thu) 22:30 U.S. January personal consumption expenditure (PCE deflator)

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