PEPE coin fails to hold above 100‑day SMA despite market resurgence

The recent attempt by PEPE coin to reclaim higher ground has faltered, as the meme coin fails to sustain momentum above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), despite broader optimism in the crypto market.

Notably, PEPE’s inability to maintain its push above key resistance comes despite Bitcoin (BTC) recording a fresh all-time high weekly close above $109,000, lifting overall market sentiment and fuelling rallies across select meme coins.

Short-lived breakout above key resistance

On Monday, PEPE briefly surged past its 100-day SMA, which stood near the $0.00001009 level, sparking initial hopes of a trend reversal.

Although the price action hinted at a bullish continuation, sellers quickly overwhelmed the move, sending PEPE back down to hover around $0.00000992 just hours later.

This rejection marked the continuation of a broader sideways movement, as PEPE remained trapped between the $0.00000990 support floor and resistance near $0.00001020.

The price structure over the past two weeks has taken the shape of a horizontal channel, with both lower and upper boundaries repeatedly tested but not convincingly breached.

Adding to the bearish pressure, whale wallets have continued distributing significant volumes of PEPE to exchanges, further clouding the near-term outlook.

According to on-chain data, one notable transaction saw 500 billion PEPE tokens worth approximately $3.85 million transferred to Binance, hinting at potential liquidation or strategic unloading by large holders.

Technical analysis points to indecision

Despite PEPE’s bounce from recent lows, technical indicators have offered mixed signals, reflecting the coin’s fragile position in a volatile market.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 44.3, suggesting a neutral momentum as the coin straddled the line between oversold and recovery zones.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed early signs of a bullish crossover, with the signal and MACD lines rising toward the zero mark, yet still operating in negative territory.

A rising MACD histogram added to short-term optimism, implying that buying pressure may be slowly rebuilding beneath the surface.

Nevertheless, these signals are not yet conclusive, and traders remain cautious as PEPE struggles to close decisively above key technical levels.

Anticipated triangle breakout now faces tough resistance

Over the weekend, the PEPE coin staged a recovery and broke out of a descending triangle pattern that had formed from the May 23 and June 10 highs, with base support at $0.00000900.

The pattern breakout initially sparked optimism among bulls, especially after PEPE gained over 3.4% on Sunday and continued inching higher into Monday.

However, the rally faced immediate resistance near $0.00001037, a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts since mid-June.

A confirmed close above this point could open the door for a move toward $0.00001196, the May 17 low, and potentially $0.00001362, the June high.

But without strong volume support and clearer momentum signals, PEPE’s price remains vulnerable to retracements and consolidation.

The PEPE coin derivatives market is flashing tentative optimism

The derivatives market has reflected a modest increase in optimism, as Open Interest (OI) climbed by 2.25% to $533.63 million in the past 24 hours.

Moreover, the OI-weighted funding rate flipped from negative to positive, moving from -0.0052% on Sunday to +0.0052% by Monday, indicating a growing willingness among traders to pay premiums for long positions.

PEPE OI-Weighted Funding Rate | Source: Coinglass

This shift suggests that speculative sentiment may be turning more bullish, though the sustainability of that enthusiasm remains uncertain.

Traders are now watching for a decisive close above $0.00001037, which could confirm PEPE’s readiness for an extended breakout rally.

Until then, downside risks remain prominent, especially if the coin fails to hold above the $0.00000990 zone and re-tests the $0.00000900 support base.

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