Polymaket Forecasts Trump Win: Can Crypto Surge After November Election? 

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At least 56.0% of the total 2024 Election Forecast bettors on Polymarket, a popular decentralised prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcome of world events, have predicted the victory of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the US Presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. What does the current political sentiment in the US suggest about the future prospects of the cryptocurrency sector? 

Polymarket 2024 Election Forecast Overview: Bettors Favour Trump in Swing States 

When more than 56.0% of the total bettors have selected Trump, Harris has secured less than 43.4%. Evidently, there exists a massive difference of almost 13% between Trump and Harris. Notably, the Polymarket forecast indicates Trump dominating in at least four of the six crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. More than 66% bettors have predicted the victory of Trump in Arizona, 63% in Georgia, 55% in Pennsylvania, and 52% in Michigan. Nevada is the only swing state where Harris has outperformed Trump. In Nevada, at least 52% bettors have predicted the victory of Harris against 48% of Trump. 

Kamala Harris entered the US presidential campaign on July 21, 2024, after Joe Biden withdrew from the campaign. Her entry boosted the Democratic Party, which has been struggling to fight the renewed charisma of Republican candidate Donald Trump, a former president. 

The Polymarket chart shows that in the initial days of the campaign, Trump’s acceptance among the election forecast bettors was tremendously higher than Harris’s; more than 60% bettors forecasted Trump’s victory. In mid-August, the sentiment shifted when Harris, with 54%, gained a slight edge over Trump on August 16. However, by the end of that month, Trump regained his dominance. On August 22, around 53% bettors supported Trump. Throughout August and early October, the chart suggested a close contest. Since October 7, a new trend has emerged favouring Trump, with the gap between the two candidates’ support continuing to widen, now reaching as high as 13%. 

How Trump’s Win Could Impact the Cryptocurrency Sector? 

Trump, ditching his earlier crypto-skeptical attitude, has become an enthusiastic advocate for the crypto revolution. He has promised to create a crypto-friendly administration, liberating the sector from the clutches of unnecessary regulations. The victory of a pro-Crypto leader in such an important election could significantly impact the crypto market. Historically, Q4 has been favourable for the cryptocurrency market. In 2023, Bitcoin recorded an enviable return of +56.6% in Q4. Since 2011, at least eight times, Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in Q4. In November of the previous year alone, the market posted an 8.87% return. Since 2011, around eight times, the market has shown positive returns in November. This consistent performance raises the possibility of another positive outcome in 2024, especially if a crypto-supportive president wins.  

Crypto Market Uncertainty: What If Kamala Harris Wins?

In conclusion, the big question now is: what happens if this prediction goes wrong? What will happen if Kamala Harris wins? Will the crypto sector suffer a fall? A victory of Kamala Harris would signal the continuation of the current administration’s attitude towards crypto regulation. Many may struggle to accept the continuation of current crypto policies. If it translates to a negative market sentiment, Kamal’s victory could create market shocks, at least for a few weeks.  

Stay tuned to Coinpedia for more US political updates that influence the crypto market!