Polymarket US Election Prediction: 3M Whale Sells Trump Bets, Shifting Market Sentiment

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The US is witnessing a crucial presidential election today. This election season has been noteworthy for the active participation of crypto betting platforms like Polymarket. Currently, Polymarket bettors overwhelmingly support Republican candidate Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Kamala Harrris. A recent whale activity on Polymarket has triggered serious discussions regarding the accuracy of Trump’s victory odds. The big question is: Are the odds real? Curious to know? Dive in!

Polymarket Whale Sells $3M in Trump Bets 

It all began when, all of the sudden, Larpas, a Polymarket Whale, sold nearly $3 million in pro-Trump bets. As this unexpected sell-off happened just before the election day, it influenced market sentiment significantly. 

Questioning Trump’s Odds 

If you closely analyse the market, you might realise that there is not much to feel surprised about regarding the whale action. 

Recently, GCR, a renowned crypto trader and analyst, pointed out that crypto betting platforms like Polymarket might not be able to correctly predict the odds of right-wing candidates.

This indicates that the odds for Trump may be overstated. 

Reports show that Trump’s odds on Polymarket could be artificially high, with around 30% of pro-Trump bets potentially ‘fake’ trades.  

Crypto Expert Warning Against Risky Betting 

GCR warned his followers against making risky bets. He claimed that he exited his positions after capturing the primary movements. 

Polymakert Betting on US Election: An Overview 

As of now, at least 60.1% of Polymarket bettors believe Trump will win the US presidency, compared to 40% who support Kamala Harris. Furthermore, bettors also think Trump will emerge victorious in at least four of the six swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

In conclusion, the developments in crypto-backed election betting raise questions about market accuracy and influencer impact.