“Predicting Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024” What is the basis for Bloomberg analyst’s opinion?

Likelihood of multiple Bitcoin ETFs being approved

It is believed that approval for a physical Bitcoin ETF (exchange traded fund) is imminent. One analyst noted that multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs are likely to be approved between January 8 and 10, 2024.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seifert said on “The Scoop” podcast that the SEC could approve multiple ETFs at the same time, adding that the SEC could approve multiple ETFs at the same time. )’s victory affected the approval process.

Seifert is known for his analysis of Bitcoin ETF trends and has gained a certain amount of credibility on social media this year.

connection:US SEC postpones decision on Invesco’s Ethereum ETF listing application

SEC review process and deadlines

According to him, the SEC has been in continuous dialogue with ETF issuers since early October. Furthermore, some important developments took place at the end of November, narrowing down the time frame for approval. Although the specific details are not stated, the information is based on reliable and unreliable sources.

The deadline for reviewing multiple applications is near the final deadline for ARK (1/10) (US time). Source: Bloomberg

Currently, 13 companies have applied for ETFs, and January 10th (US time) is the final deadline for applications for Ark and 21Shares. According to Seifert, the SEC is strategically delaying the overall review “to avoid being a kingmaker (giving no advantage to a particular application),” and could potentially approve multiple ETFs at the same time. It is said that there is.

connection:Even if Bitcoin spot ETF is not approved, “virtual currency will rise in 2024” = Matrixport report

Positioning of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

In August of this year, Grayscale Investments won a legal dispute with the SEC over its application to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a physical Bitcoin ETF. Seifert points out that this victory prompted the SEC to change its criteria for Bitcoin ETFs.

connection: “Involved in recent court ruling” SEC Chairman Gensler comments on Bitcoin ETF listing application

What is noteworthy is that the GBTC conversion application is designed to not include a monitoring sharing agreement with Coinbase. The SEC believes this indicates that no new guidelines currently exist.

The oversight sharing agreement with Coinbase was a key element in Black Rock’s previous ETF application (the most likely one). However, the decision in the Grayscale case (by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals) is believed to have effectively nullified the need for this monitoring sharing agreement.

Meetings between Grayscale and the SEC are currently underway, but no concrete conclusions have been reached. Seifert said this uncertainty may prevent Grayscale from getting approved for an ETF in the first place.

connection:BlackRock and others submit revised version of Bitcoin ETF application, expectations increase for simultaneous SEC approval

From approval to launch

Seifert said that even if a physical Bitcoin ETF were approved, there would be no immediate decision on a listing date. The approval process is based on the 19b-4 procedure, and separate approval of the S-1 prospectus is required for ETF sales, which is subject to a different SEC division. Therefore, the exact timeline is uncertain.

Regarding institutional reactions after the launch, he predicted that major securities companies and banks are likely to take a cautious approach to the new fund. Meanwhile, he believes independent IRAs and advisors will be the primary buyers in the early stages, with first-day market inflows potentially reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. Additionally, they assessed that these ETFs have the potential to raise billions of dollars over the long term.

Ethereum’s position is unique

On the other hand, regarding the outlook for Ethereum spot ETFs, Seifert pointed out that they are “completely different” from BTC. He said the Ethereum futures market is not as robust as Bitcoin, and noted that the SEC could delay its decision or claim Ethereum is a security. However, my personal opinion is that the SEC accepts Ether as a commodity, and I predict that a spot Ethereum ETF will be approved by the end of May.

connection:“Involved in recent court ruling” SEC Chairman Gensler comments on Bitcoin ETF listing application

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