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Estimated “88% chance of approval in early January”
Traders at Polymarket, a DeFi (decentralized finance) prediction service, believe there is an 88% chance that a Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF will be approved by the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) by January 15th. There is.
88% chance of Bitcoin ETF approval?
nah, they’re gonna reject it just to see me get liquidated one last time
time to hedge 
pic.twitter.com/6MUPvswF1X
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 2, 2024
Polymarket is a market where traders can bet on the prediction of various events. The price of a prediction of “approval by January 15th” is 88 cents, indicating an 88% chance of realization.
Polymarket also pointed out in X’s post that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may reject physical ETFs again, and recommended hedging strategies.
connection: Will a Bitcoin spot ETF finally be born in the US this year? Summary of 2024 virtual currency market predictions
What is Bitcoin ETF?
An Exchange Traded Fund that includes Bitcoin as an investment. An investment trust is a financial product that collects money from investors into a single fund and invests it in stocks, bonds, etc. The system is such that the investment results are distributed according to each investor’s investment amount. Among investment trusts, ETFs are listed on stock exchanges, so they can be bought and sold like stocks.
Virtual currency glossary
connection:What is the exchange-traded fund “Bitcoin ETF”? | Why BlackRock’s application is attracting attention
Reuters reported on December 30 that if the SEC decides to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF, it may notify issuers of the ETF as early as the 3rd or 4th.was telling.
The SEC said Dec. 29 was the last filing date in order to make an approval decision by early January. In response, BlackRock and Valkyrie submitted the final version of their application. Two companies have been designated as Authorized Participants (APs) for the ETF.
connection: BlackRock and Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF, JP Morgan and others to provide liquidity
Some say that approval in the first week of January is difficult.
Eleanor Terret, a business reporter for US media outlet Fox, thinks it is unlikely that the SEC will approve a Bitcoin spot ETF this week.
While the @SECGov is surely unpredictable, it would surprise me if approvals were to happen tomorrow.
From what I understand through conversations I’ve had with issuers, the SEC still has to review all the changes made to the S-1s filed on Thursday/Friday AND make comments on… https://t.co/CnkYdXsbD4
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) January 1, 2024
Terret said he understood from speaking with a representative from the ETF issuer that the SEC will review all changes made to the application submitted by the 29th and comment on them. It is necessary to add
Terret said he believes approval on the 3rd or 4th would be difficult given that SEC staff has been on vacation since the 29th. In any case, he continued, “the next two weeks are going to be an exciting period for cryptocurrencies.”
As expectations for approval grow, Goldman Sachs’ head of digital assets predicts that if a Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF is approved, institutional investors’ interest in cryptocurrencies will also increase. There is.
He also opined that once spot ETFs are approved, the situation will gradually change over the next year.
connection: Goldman Sachs executive “Bitcoin spot ETF will increase institutional investors’ interest in cryptocurrencies”
connection: Learn about Bitcoin ETFs from the beginning: Explain the advantages and disadvantages of investing and how to buy US stocks
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