Reliable Bitcoin Indicators Show the Arrival of a Big Bull Market | coindesk JAPAN | Coindesk Japan

A little-known but historically reliable Bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has turned positive, ushering in a major bull market.

Bitcoin’s reserve risk multiple has crossed zero, turning positive for the first time since October 2021, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.

Previous zero crossings have paved the way for big price gains. “In 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019 and 2020, they delivered a profit of 2830%, 566%, 6400%, 99% and 487% respectively,” said on-chain analyst Ali Martinez. Matrinez) on April 17is tweeting.

Reserve risk measures the confidence of long-term holders in prices at any point in time. Glassnode compares long-term holders’ incentives to sell at market prices and long-term holders who resist the temptation of liquidation to calculate the reserve risk multiple over the long term. defined as a cyclical index. A low number indicates a strong belief of HODLers, and vice versa.

The reserve risk multiple is calculated by dividing the daily index value by the 365-day moving average.

Past moves above zero have paved the way for sharp price increases. (Glassnode)

Movements of the reserve risk multiple above and below zero have historically been accurate predictors of bullish or bearish trends.

In light of history, this crossover is due to the fact that Bitcoin, the crypto asset (virtual currency) with the largest market capitalization, has risen 80% since the beginning of the year, surpassing $ 30,000 for the first time in 10 months. It shows the possibility that it is only the first milestone of

This is in line with Bitcoin’s tendency to register significant gains over several months ahead of mining reward halving. The event will reduce the pace of Bitcoin supply growth by 50% every four years. Bitcoin’s fourth reward halving is scheduled for April 2024.

｜Translation: coindesk JAPAN
｜Editing: Toshihiko Inoue
| Image: Glassnode
｜Original: Lesser-Known Bitcoin Indicator Signals Onset of Major Bull Run