U.S. Nasdaq 100 index hits new high; two U.S. Federal Reserve presidents discourage interest rate cut expectations | 16th Financial Tankan

12/16 (Saturday) morning market trends (compared to the previous day)

traditional finance

• NY Dow: 37,305 +0.1%
• Nasdaq: 14,813 +0.3%
• Nikkei average: 32,970 +0.8%
• USD/JPY: 142.1 +0.2%
• Gold futures: 2,033.7 -0.5%
• NVIDIA: $253.5 +1%
• Apple: $197.5 -0.2%

Today’s NY Dow continued to rise and reached new highs. Additionally, the S&P 100 index (100 blue-chip stocks with a high proportion of high-tech stocks) also hit a new record high based on closing prices. Before the start of trading, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Williams made remarks aimed at curbing expectations for excessive interest rate cuts, but the market remained focused on the interest rate outlook announced by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday this week (dot plot). The bank is still considering the prospect of three interest rate cuts next year as a factor.

Source: Google

Hawkish New York Fed President William Williams said, “We’re not even talking about rate cuts, so it’s too early to think about a March rate cut,” and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on the same day that he plans to cut interest rates twice next year. He predicted that it would start in the third quarter (July-September). Meanwhile, according to a report from Bloomberg, the interest rate swap market is pricing in as many as six interest rate cuts next year.

connection: FOMC suggests dovish shift; US stocks and Bitcoin rise across the board due to predictions of multiple interest rate cuts next year

Today’s main market materials are as follows:.

• December New York Fed Manufacturing Industry Index was significantly lower than expected
• European Central Bank is more hawkish than US Fed
• Bank of Japan monetary policy decision expected to be maintained on Tuesday next week
• A growing number of Chinese government agencies and state-owned companies are asking employees not to bring foreign-made devices, such as Apple’s iPhone, into the workplace.

connection: VanEck predicts the amount of capital inflow upon approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, taking into account gold ETF cases and economic environment

connection: “Bitcoin will reach $80,000 in 2024” Bitwise makes a bullish prediction for the virtual currency market

Important economic indicators/events from this week onwards

• 12/19 (Tuesday) Morning Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision Policy Interest Rate Announcement
• 12/19 (Tue) 15:30 Regular press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda
• 12/20 (Tue) Announcement of People’s Bank of China’s loan prime rate (lending interest rate index)
• 12/21 (Thursday) 22:30 U.S. quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP, final value)
• 12/22 (Fri) 22:30 US November personal consumption expenditure (PCE deflator)

connection:Learn about Bitcoin ETFs from the beginning: Explaining the advantages and disadvantages of investing and how to buy US stocks

Cryptocurrency-related stocks fall

• Coinbase｜$147.9 (-3.7%)
• MicroStrategy | $570 (-2%)
• Marathon | $18.2 (+2.6%)

Major cryptocurrency-related stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy have fallen sharply due to the fall in Bitcoin prices. Meanwhile, major U.S. Bitcoin mining company Marathon rose in value following a Bloomberg report that the company plans to acquire rival Bitcoin mining companies and related infrastructure within the next two years.

connection: Bitcoin market capitalization rises to 9th place, surpassing Tesla and Berkshire, approaching 1/16th of the gold market

Virtual currency market

• Bitcoin: $41,945 -2.5%
• Ethereum: $2,220 -4.2%

connection: “Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin’s growth rate” JP Morgan forecast for next year

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