U.S. SEC disapproves Bitcoin spot ETF again? Matrixport releases new analysis

10 months ago 68

Are physical ETFs not approved?

Matrixport, a cryptocurrency service company, announced on the 3rd that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will disapprove all Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs (exchange traded funds) this month. Indicated.

They argue that ETF applicant companies have been meeting frequently with the SEC to resubmit their applications, but that they still do not appear to have met the requirements for approval. The company also expressed the view that it may be able to meet SEC requirements in the second quarter of 2024 (April to June).

Up until now, many investors and experts had expected the SEC to approve the Bitcoin spot ETF that Ark had applied for, as the deadline for making a final decision on approval or rejection was the 10th of this month.

Matrixport’s analysis differs from this view, and the company cites SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s December comments as the basis for its opinion. Last month, Gensler pointed out on social media that the cryptocurrency industry has many compliance violations.

connection: Cryptocurrency industry rebels against SEC Chairman Gensler’s warning, Ripple CEO also joins in the criticism

Matrixport predicts that if the SEC continues to disapprove, there will be many liquidations. If this happens, the Bitcoin price could drop by up to 20% instantly, claiming that it could drop to a range of $36,000 (approximately 5,156,000 yen) to $38,000 (approximately 5,442,000 yen).

Matrixport also expressed the view that, “Even if the SEC disapproves ETFs, the US presidential election and halving will cause Bitcoin prices to rise by the end of 2024 compared to the beginning of the year.”

connection: Bitcoin expected to reach all-time high by November next year, halving and US presidential election will be factors behind the rise | VanEck Report

What is half-life?

It refers to the timing when the mining reward (=newly issued amount) of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin is reduced by half.

Virtual currency glossary

connection:
Learn about Bitcoin ETFs from the beginning: Explaining the advantages and disadvantages of investing and how to buy US stocks

Bitcoin ETF special feature

Analysis integrity

On the other hand, Matrixport published a report on the 2nd titled, “Bitcoin spot ETF impending approval, causing Bitcoin price to rise to $50,000 (approximately 7.161 million yen).” It was pointed out on social media that these two reports were contradictory.

After that, Matrixport co-founder Jihan Wu commented on the company’s analysis on the 4th.comment. “Matrixport’s analysis is conducted independently and without interference from management,” it said at the time.

He explained that the employees who conduct research have better analytical skills than he and his management team. Wu said he only confirmed the title of the report.

and anotherPostMr. Wu pointed out that he was not giving contradictory analyzes on the same day. He claimed to share different opinions on different days, and also explained that “the ability to modify opinions on the fly is valued by Matrixport customers.”

Although some pointed out that Matrixport’s report lacked evidence, the price of Bitcoin fell following the company’s report on the 3rd. At the time of writing this article, the price is trending in the $42,000 (6.01 million yen) range, but it has fallen from the $45,000 range the day before to the $40,000 million range on Binance at one point.

A senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg still believes that a Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in January.way of seeingIt shows.