US Election results: Donald Trump’s odds surge to 90% on betting markets

As the 2024 presidential election unfolds, betting markets have swung sharply in favour of Donald Trump.

While traditionally Republican and Democratic states have aligned with their respective candidates, early signs indicate Trump is likely to secure key battlegrounds such as Georgia and North Carolina.

This momentum shift has seen Trump’s odds on major betting platforms rise dramatically, reflecting increased confidence among market participants in his potential win.

As financial and prediction markets react to these early developments, both candidates’ paths to victory are becoming clearer, though no major swing state has yet been called.

Kalshi and PredictIt show dramatic rise in Trump’s odds

On Tuesday night, prediction markets recorded a striking surge in Trump’s odds of victory. Kalshi, a popular forecasting platform, saw his odds leap to 90% from a 57% probability at the beginning of the day.

PredictIt similarly reflected a shift, with a contract on Trump winning the election climbing to 88 cents from 54 cents just 24 hours prior.

Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers’ Forecast Trader indicated a comparable rise, with Trump’s chances soaring to 90% from 59%, echoing the broader sentiment across financial prediction platforms.

Crypto-based markets also favour Trump’s chances

The influence of blockchain-based prediction markets is adding a new layer to election forecasts.

On Polymarket, a crypto-driven prediction site, Trump’s odds surged to 94% from a starting point of 62% on Tuesday morning.

These odds shifts suggest that users on decentralised platforms, which cater to a tech-savvy demographic, have also taken note of early vote counts favouring Trump.

The higher odds signal a broader market anticipation of his victory and underline the wider adoption of crypto markets in high-stakes forecasting.

Financial markets price in Trump victory, boosting dollar and Bitcoin

Beyond betting markets, financial instruments have shown a clear response to the prospect of a Trump presidency.

The dollar strengthened in after-hours trading, with a corresponding rise in Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and stocks of Trump Media and Technology Group.

This shift indicates investor sentiment adjusting to a potential continuation of Trump’s policies, particularly those favourable to market deregulation and tax relief, which had defined his previous administration.

These early movements suggest that investors are preparing for a renewed pro-market environment should Trump secure the presidency.

Traditional poll predictions still highlight close race

Despite market trends, traditional election trackers continue to emphasise a close race.

The New York Times currently forecasts an 89% chance of a Trump victory, while The Washington Post’s forecast suggests a slightly narrower path to his winning the electoral college.

This reflects the inherent volatility of real-time election tracking, where early results and projections can often swing based on turnout in key urban and suburban districts.

Harris’s early momentum dips despite prior gains in Iowa

While Tuesday’s betting market shifts suggest a Trump lead, Kamala Harris had previously gained traction over the weekend, backed by positive polling in critical areas.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co., a respected barometer of Iowa voter sentiment, showed Harris leading Trump by 47% to 44%.

This temporary gain, however, appears to have waned as the first votes were counted, illustrating the unpredictable nature of election night dynamics and the rapid shifts in market sentiment.

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