Virtual currency-related policies will be one of the issues in the US presidential election in November 2024

M.Somekawa
Reference: Grayscale, Politico

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2024/02/10 16:00
02/10 16:00

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Lobbying and support from the crypto asset world is also active

In the US presidential election to be held in November 2024, in addition to major topics such as the economy and immigration issues, policies regarding crypto assets (virtual currencies) and central bank digital currencies (CBDC) will also be an issue. ing.

According to research by Morning Consult, an increasing number of young voters are interested in emerging technologies such as web3 and crypto assets, and these topics are starting to take center stage in political discussions.

As of 2024, the number of voters who own crypto assets is estimated to be in the millions, and they reside in battleground states that were decided by narrow margins in the last election.

Lobbying and support for candidates in the crypto industry is on the rise, and current information published on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction and betting platform, suggests that former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, It has the support of a majority and is said to be in a favorable position.

In this article, we will explore in detail the importance of crypto asset policy in the upcoming US presidential election.

grayscale poll

A Grayscale poll titled “Election 2024: The Role of Cryptoassets” (conducted by Harris Poll) published in late 2023 revealed how Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptoassets play in the context of elections. We investigated what is being said and confirmed the political importance of crypto assets.

The main points of the survey results are as follows.

• Voter concerns about inflation highlight Bitcoin's importance in an election year.
• 46% of voters are waiting for additional policies regarding crypto investments.
• Roughly half of young voters, who own more crypto assets than stocks, consider a candidate's stance on crypto assets before voting.

The findings show that concerns about financial stability and inflation are driving interest in crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, which has been correlated with the decline in the value of fiat currencies.

Source: Grayscale

Grayscale analysis

Regarding these trends, Grayscale's analysis reveals two important observations regarding Bitcoin:

• People familiar with Bitcoin view it as a macroeconomic asset. We recognize that investing in Bitcoin goes beyond speculative activities or the pursuit of short-term profits; it is an asset whose value fluctuates as it is influenced by broad economic trends.
• On the other hand, more education is needed for the general public to understand Bitcoin. Doing so could help Bitcoin gain widespread acceptance and become a mainstream investment option.

Gen Z and Millennials are more likely to own crypto assets than stocks, and many believe that crypto assets and blockchain technology are the future of finance. Additionally, many respondents said they would be more willing to invest in crypto assets if clearer policies and regulations were introduced.

According to the survey, 73% of voters think presidential candidates should have an informed perspective on innovative technologies like AI and crypto assets.

connection:U.S. presidential election, virtual currency, and growing interest in Bitcoin policy among voters = Grayscale survey

Opinions of former SEC enforcement officer Mr. Stark

Former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforcement officer John Reed Stark said on January 17, 2022 that crypto debate and policy could be key to the 2024 presidential election. I posted it on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday.

The Crypto Movement Could Hold the Key to the 2024 Presidential Election

Every presidential contender should immediately appoint an internal Crypto Czar to serve as the crypto-focal point and crypto-spokesperson for that candidate.

The Crypto Czar should join the stages of all…

— John Reed Stark (@JohnReedStark) January 17, 2024

All presidential candidates should immediately appoint an internal crypto asset official to serve as the candidate's central point of contact and spokesperson for crypto assets.

This post takes the view that crypto assets will be an important discussion and policy point in the 2024 presidential election. Cryptocurrency is not just a minor issue; it could play an important role in election campaigns.

Super PAC backed by crypto industry

On December 18, 2023, three super PACs backed by crypto industry executives and investors said they had raised $78 million as part of a major new effort to influence the 2024 election. Announced.

This shows the crypto industry's very serious commitment to tackling the 2024 elections, seeking to support friendly policymakers in the face of increased scrutiny from regulators.

This campaign is supported by venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Ripple, Messari (crypto asset market data analysis company), early investors in crypto assets, and technology. It has received support from numerous other companies and individuals, including the entrepreneurial Winklevoss brothers.

connection:Major US venture capital a16z announces “9 virtual currency trends to expect in 2024”

On the same day, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse posted on

“Ripple and its team intend to take the lead, along with other industry leaders, in actively supporting innovative and crypto-friendly candidates in the 2024 U.S. election.” .

Garlinhaus, who expressed concern about regulatory overreach, particularly the SEC's overreach, emphasized the need for the United States to avoid going in the wrong direction.

Team @Ripple is putting a stake in the ground, leading the charge with other industry leaders to support pro-innovation and pro-crypto candidates in the 2024 US election cycle. The US cannot afford to continue taking a back seat on the global stage.
Regulatory overreach (esp from… https://t.co/hpkqNf7Y99

— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) December 18, 2023

This is consistent with a message released by Ben Horowitz of Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) on December 14th, who said that all donations would only support candidates who align with his ideas and that the United States The government has stated that it plans to oppose candidates who try to hinder technological progress.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, a major US cryptocurrency exchange, posted the following on X.

The crypto industry has a large war chest now to elect pro-crypto candidates in 2024. We're proud to contribute, and give the 52m Americans who have used crypto better representation.

It will be bi-partisan. And hopefully we can get it to $100m in Q1 next year. https://t.co/V20G2d3Eoc

— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) December 18, 2023

The crypto industry currently has a large war chest to elect pro-crypto candidates for the 2024 elections. We are proud to contribute to this bipartisan effort that will allow us to provide better representation to the more than 50 million Americans who use crypto assets. We hope to reach $100 million.

What is super PAC?

Super PACs are an important element of American political campaign finance, and aim to provide funding to political candidates and policies.

Virtual currency glossary

Unlike regular PACs (Political Action Committees), super PACs can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, but are prohibited from directly coordinating with candidates' campaigns.

These are primarily used to fund political advertising and election-related activities to support specific policies and positions.

connection:Coinbase and other U.S. Web3 companies invest heavily in political action committees to support elections for virtual currency policy advocates

Bipartisan Congressional Cooperation on Cryptoassets

In Congress, Democrats and Republicans tend to be divided on traditional issues such as taxation, climate change, health care, gun control, and LGBTQ+ rights, but cooperation between the two parties can be observed when it comes to crypto assets.

Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association, pointed out that many bills introduced in Congress last year were the result of collaboration between members of different political backgrounds.

Smith said younger members of Congress are gaining an understanding of crypto assets more quickly than older members.

In fact, the Congressional Blockchain Caucus, which has specific interests in policy and regulation related to blockchain technology and crypto assets, is co-chaired by two Republicans and two Democrats.

Percentage of US senators who support crypto assets

On the other hand, data shows that Republicans tend to have more positive attitudes toward crypto assets than Democrats.

According to a survey by Coinbase's nonprofit advocacy group Stand with Crypto, 18 U.S. senators support crypto assets, including 14 Republicans and four Democrats. .

In contrast, there are 30 senators who oppose crypto assets, including 23 Democrats, 5 Republicans, and 2 independents.

Increasing number of voters who place importance on encryption policy

According to research data from Coinbase and Morning Consult, one in five Americans (52 million people) own digital assets. Among the respondents who own crypto assets, 22% are Democrats, 18% are Republicans, and 22% are independents. Additionally, 60% are Gen Z or Millennials, and 41% are minorities. While these voter blocs did not have an impact in 2020, they are likely to play a major role this November.

Morning Consult also conducted a poll on cryptocurrencies in four battleground states: New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The results showed that millions of Americans consider digital asset policy to be most important to them.

Various positions on crypto assets among presidential candidates

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a former Democrat and now an independent running as an independent candidate, has made his support for crypto assets clear.

In July 2023, RFK Jr. pledged to make the United States a global hub for Bitcoin, and announced that if he became president, he would exempt capital gains tax when converting Bitcoin into US dollars. I told you.

Dr. Joseph @Mercola and I discuss financial freedom in the 21st century. As president, I will end the efforts to move toward a CBDC. #Kennedy24 pic.twitter.com/gao3D1HAeM

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) January 24, 2024

On January 24th, Kennedy sent a message through his X account stating that “Bitcoin (BTC) protects people from inflation and other dangers better than fiat currency (Fiat).''

Meanwhile, Republican candidate Donald Trump has not taken a particularly clear position on cryptocurrencies, other than some negative comments about Bitcoin during his term as president.

Even during the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump has made almost no direct mention of Bitcoin or crypto assets. However, he is recognized as one of the candidates who actively embraces cryptography, having released his own NFT (non-fungible token) collection, which he calls “digital trading cards.”

connection:Bitcoin Ordinary Benefit Added to Former President Trump's Third NFT “Mugshot Edition”

However, Mr. Trump has expressed opposition to the creation of a CBDC (central bank digital currency). During a campaign speech in the New Hampshire city of Portsmouth on January 17, Trump said, “I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency,'' and said that CBDC would give the federal government “absolute control over citizens' money.'' He criticized that it would give

connection:Bill against CBDC surveillance society approved by U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee

In recent years, critics have voiced that CBDCs could be used to centralize the dollar and control Americans through digital wallets. RFK Jr., mentioned above, has also declared that he will end his “CBDC efforts.”

Meanwhile, incumbent President Joe Biden (Democratic Party) is seeking re-election, but his administration has not been particularly proactive about crypto assets over the past four years. Last year, for example, President Biden criticized “wealthy crypto investors” for exploiting tax loopholes supported by MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans.

We don't have to guess what MAGA House Republicans value. They're telling us. pic.twitter.com/BM6JGMEFeq

— President Biden (@POTUS) May 9, 2023

Meanwhile, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler has attempted to rein in crypto exchanges and protocols. And Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is increasing regulatory pressure on the industry.

connection:U.S. Coinbase strongly opposes Warren's claims, saying they are “misrepresenting efforts to comply with the law''

However, there are factors that influence the government's stance, such as the approval of Bitcoin ETFs (exchange traded funds), and there is a possibility that future regulatory policies may change.

connection:Cryptocurrency-supporting candidate Ramaswamy withdraws from US presidential election

Current status of the 2024 US presidential election: Possibility of a showdown between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump

As of January 2024, the US presidential election is in the primary stage.

Each political party is in the process of selecting its own candidates, with current Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump expected to be their respective party's nominees. has been done.

Primaries consist of a series of state-level contests in which party members elect delegates and those delegates formally nominate presidential candidates at the party's national convention.

The candidates will then be voted on in a general election and will be decided on November 5, 2024.

Current trends suggest that the 2024 election will likely be a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, if Biden and Trump secure their respective parties' nominations.

Trump has an advantage on crypto asset prediction and betting platforms

On Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction and betting platform, users are betting on former US President Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election.

Trump currently has a 55% chance of winning, compared to incumbent President Joe Biden's 39%.

According to the platform's data, more than $19 million has been bet on the upcoming US presidential election.

While Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are the leading candidates, other high-profile candidates such as Democrat and California Governor Gavin Newsom, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and former first lady and lawyer Michelle Obama Also considered potential candidates.

Ryan Serkis, founder and CEO of Messari, said:

“Mr. Trump has more points, but industry leaders are unwilling to support him.'' On the other hand, regarding Mr. Biden, “Mr. “The person who has entrusted this to me.''

“As unpleasant as it may be, there is no longer an excuse to hide your support for Trump,” Serkis wrote on X.

Trump is the 12 point favorite to win the presidency and crypto execs still won't support him vs the man who's spent three years outsourcing financial policy to Elizabeth Warren.

It's uncomfortable, but there is no longer any excuse to hide your support. pic.twitter.com/F4KL0ybFWr

— Ryan Selkis (d/acc) (@twobitidiot) January 21, 2024

In 2024, a Bitcoin ETF will be approved and major events such as the halving are also coming.

In addition, this year, when the US presidential election will be held, candidates' attitudes toward crypto assets are expected to have a major impact on the market.

Depending on the election results, regulations and policies related to crypto assets may change significantly, and investors and industry participants are paying close attention to political trends.

connection:
Learn about Bitcoin ETFs from the beginning: Explaining the advantages and disadvantages of investing and how to buy US stocks

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