When Will Bitcoin Price Hit New ATH? Arthur Hayes Reveals ‘Bull Market Checklist’

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Bitcoin could be heading for new all-time highs, at least if Arthur Hayes has it right. The BitMEX co-founder recently shared a bullish take on the market, pointing to key regulatory changes that he believes are setting the stage for a major crypto rally.

From stablecoin reforms to broader shifts in global finance, Hayes sees the pieces falling into place for Bitcoin to surge.

SLR Exemption Could Spark a Crypto Liquidity Boost

Hayes highlights the U.S. Treasury’s Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption as a major factor. If reinstated, this policy would let banks free up more capital, allowing them to hold stablecoins and crypto-related assets with fewer restrictions.

That means more liquidity, stronger support from big institutions, and a smoother path for crypto to integrate with the traditional financial system. For Hayes, it’s a clear sign that markets are preparing for a new bull cycle.

The Genius Act: Giving Banks Control of Stablecoins

Another big piece of the puzzle is the proposed Genius Act. This legislation could shift control of the U.S. stablecoin market to banks—a move Hayes believes is actually a good thing.

Rather than slowing innovation, this could bring legitimacy and stability to stablecoins, making them a trusted part of the financial system. That kind of trust, in turn, can lift confidence in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Hayes: Ignore the Drama, Watch the Market

Hayes also pointed out how world leaders, like Trump, Netanyahu, and Iran’s Khamenei, are caught up in political and geopolitical tensions. But he urges investors to look past the headlines and focus on market signals instead.

He points to a 22% surge in stablecoin market cap this year, now hitting $251 billion. To Hayes, that’s a strong sign that capital is flowing back into crypto and that investors are positioning for a run.

Not His First Rodeo

Hayes’s view ties into his past commentary, where he’s connected crypto market trends with global economic policy. He’s written before about the impact of central banks, like the Bank of Japan, on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Now, as macro conditions shift and regulators appear more open to crypto, Hayes sees all signs pointing to another breakout moment.

Bitcoin’s Setup for a New Rally?

With policies like the SLR exemption and the Genius Act bringing crypto and traditional finance closer together, Hayes believes Bitcoin is primed for big gains. Stablecoins may be laying the groundwork—but Bitcoin, he argues, is the real beneficiary.

If his call plays out, we could be entering a new phase of adoption, with Bitcoin leading the charge toward another all-time high.