Why do many people still think “Bitcoin will end” | CoinDesk JAPAN

If you want more evidence of the gap in understanding between “ordinary people” and crypto enthusiasts, look no further than Deutsche Bank’s recent survey of 2,000 individual customers. .

The most surprising result is that one-third of respondents expect Bitcoin to fall below $20,000 by the end of the year.

Incidentally, this amount is less than half the current price, and like other bullish forecasts, we see demand from ETFs fueling a decline in supply after the next halving, scheduled for April of this year. , far short of investor Anthony Scaramucci’s target price of $170,000.

Related article: Bitcoin expected to reach at least $170,000 after halving: Anthony Scaramucci

What caught my attention was the answer regarding Bitcoin’s “viability.” More people said they thought Bitcoin would disappear in the next few years than said it would survive.

Considering the readership of this article, some of you may be shaking your head in disbelief right now, thinking about the return of the “Bitcoin is over” meme. As a well-known website that tallies Bitcoin’s “death declarations” points out, Bitcoin has already died 475 times since 2010.

But the problem is with us. Despite this long and 13-year track record of making multiple comebacks, proving the naysayers wrong, and becoming the best investment of the post-financial crisis era, people are still saying, “Bitcoin is coming soon.” It’s emblematic of a huge failure in outreach and communication in this industry. I wasn’t able to explain Bitcoin in a way that ordinary people could understand.

misunderstanding

In this respect, I am also guilty. It’s easy to feel ridiculed or frustrated by this lack of understanding, but it’s this attitude that makes it even more difficult to win the public’s trust and help them understand this complex and unfamiliar concept. .

Here’s the counterargument that came to me instinctively after reading the Deutsche Bank study.

“Really? Everyone! Will Bitcoin end this year? How exactly? Who will stop Bitcoin? There is no individual or company with a kill switch on Bitcoin’s open source code base. Everyone involved Are you saying that it will stop organically through the collective actions of one person, one of the tens of millions of people who have invested their time and effort in Bitcoin, including miners, developers, investors, and users? What if one person doesn’t have the means to cooperate with each other and withdraws from Bitcoin at the same time? I see…

One of the reasons why predictions of Bitcoin’s demise are so frustrating is because they contradict the clear nature of Bitcoin’s core value proposition: “You can’t shut down Bitcoin.”

“Unstoppable” is a powerful idea in a world where everything else – governments, banks, internet platforms – can be hijacked.

We are witnessing incredible inventions. An immutable, math-based system that tracks the transmission of our values ​​predictably inscribes a new block of records every 10 minutes, completely resistant to interference or censorship. People should really be amazed.

But most people don’t think so. Ordinary people are not impressed.

Maybe it’s because the idea is too abstract. Are there any tangible benefits for ordinary people? The person has dollars and it is more or less functional. Although they may be dissatisfied with the government, they accept the monetary system.

It is not uncommon for ordinary people to consider the big question of how censorship-resistant, depoliticized forms of value exchange can support human sovereignty on a global scale that transcends systems of nation-state dependence. It has no meaning in daily life.

distrust

What ordinary people need is to trust in something. And sadly, it cannot be trusted by the crypto community.

When people are sold something they don’t understand, they hold themselves to higher standards before trusting them. And when people’s behavior in relation to things they don’t understand arouses the biases of ordinary people, ordinary people will conclude that those selling to them, and what they are selling to them, cannot be trusted.

The noise, the bravado, the memes like “prices are going to the moon” and “enjoy being poor,” flamboyance, obsessiveness…these are things that, whether justified or not, are common people. This makes it even more difficult to believe in Bitcoin.

We need a simple, relatable message.

｜Translation and editing: Akiko Yamaguchi, Takayuki Masuda
｜Image: Bitcoin statue made of scrap metal installed at the BitCluster mining farm in Russia
｜Original text: Why People Still Think Bitcoin Will Die