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Virtual currency market this week (3/4 (Sat) – 3/10 (Fri))
Mr. Hasegawa, an analyst at the major domestic exchange bitbank, illustrates this week’s bitcoin chart and analyzes the future outlook.
table of contents
- Bitcoin on-chain data
- Contributed by bitbank
Bitcoin on-chain data
Number of BTC transactions
Number of BTC transactions (monthly)
Number of active addresses
Number of active addresses (monthly)
BTC mining pool remittance destination
Exchange/Other Services
bitbank analyst analysis (contribution: Yuya Hasegawa)
Weekly report from 3/4 (Sat) to 3/10 (Fri):
The Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate against the yen this week continued to struggle in the mid-3 million yen range, but the upper end became heavier after the middle of the week, and it is now at the $20,000 level (as of noon on the 10th). The low price is extended to 2.75 million yen.
In the previous week, the BTC market had fallen below 3.2 million yen due to the collapse of the stock price of Silvergate Capital (SI) due to the dissolution of partnerships with partner companies due to concerns about the survival of Silvergate Bank. has bottomed out at the rising trend line based on the January 18th low and the February 13th low (Fig. 2), and this week’s BTC-yen pair began trading around 3.05 million yen.
Initially, there was a wait-and-see mood ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before both houses of Congress on the 7th and 8th. The trend has pushed BTC vs. the dollar just below the trend line.
On the other hand, with the testimony as an opportunity, the market rapidly priced in the expansion of interest rate hikes at the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in March, and US Treasury yields soared. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar strengthened and the yen weakened, and BTC’s exchange rate against the yen returned to its original level after turbulent fluctuations.
On the other hand, as the BTC-dollar exchange rate fell below the trend line, the upper price was slightly heavy from the middle of the week, and Silvergate Capital announced the closure of banking operations and voluntary liquidation of assets, and the stock price plummeted again. When the BTC market fell again and fell below 3 million yen, on the 9th, US time, Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) announced the sale of shares against the background of a decrease in deposits. The possibility that the financial difficulties of these financial institutions will spread is disgusting, and the US stock market softened on the day, led by bank stocks, and the BTC price also weighed on its top.
In addition, US President Biden’s 2024 budget announced on the same day indicated that electricity used for mining would be taxed and crypto assets (virtual currencies) would be subject to wash sale regulations. The NY Attorney General sued KuCoin for being an unregistered securities and commodities broker and pointed out that ETH was a security in the complaint, causing the overall market to soften and the BTC price to widen its lows.
[Fig. 1: BTC vs Yen chart (1 hour)]Source: Created from bitbank.cc
[Fig. 2: BTC vs. USD chart and trend line (daily)]Source: Created from Glassnode
Last week we pointed out that the BTC/USD pair could bottom out around last November’s highs, but a series of bad news on Thursday made it all too easy to lose support at that level. At the moment, the market is in a squabble with the psychological milestone of $20,000 (Figure 3).
Also, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week was a surprise. At the press conference after the last FOMC meeting, he said, “For the first time, I can say that the process of disinflation has begun.” It turned around in this short period of time.
However, as a result of this, it is true that the market has been factoring in an increase in interest rate hikes in March, and that many expectations for the final point of interest rates have also risen. .
In addition, the daily RSI fell below 30% in the market on Thursday, confirming a sense of overheating, and the gap in the CMEBTC futures market in January has been filled. I think there is room for a self-reliant backlash.
[Fig. 3: BTC vs. USD chart (daily)]Source: Created from Glassnode
The BTC market continues to be in a difficult situation, but next week, we will see the US consumer price index (CPI, 14th) and the producer price index (PPI, 15th) in February, which can be a hint for the extent of the interest rate hike at the FOMC in March. is waiting.
As pointed out last week, it was pointed out that February’s inflation indicators are likely to continue to indicate the stickiness of upward pressure on prices.
connection:bitbank_markets official website
Last report:Bitcoin plunges due to silver gate problem, etc. Will severe market conditions continue due to caution mood?
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