NY Dow hits new high this year; October PCE suggests slowing inflation | 1-day Financial Tankan

12/1 (Friday) morning market trends (compared to the previous day)

traditional finance

• NY Dow: 35,950 +1.5%
• Nasdaq: 14,226 -0.2%
• Nikkei average: 33,486 +0.5%
• USD/JPY: 148.1 +0.01%
• NVIDIA: $467.7 -2.8%
• Tesla: $239.7 -1.8%

Today’s NY Dow continued to increase significantly by over $520. The last economic indicator of November, the US PCE deflator, showed slowing inflation data, which was well-received, marking the second highest daily listing width in November after November 2nd (+$564), which is the highest of this year. It hit a new high and reached its highest price since January 2022.

source:

November was a month that raised expectations for a year-end bull market (Santa Rally), with the New York Dow performing well, as well as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting their highest monthly prices since July 2022. The factors included a slowdown in inflation as indicated by the US CPI and PCE, a corresponding shift to a dovish stance among senior Federal Reserve officials, and rising expectations for the end of the FOMC’s interest rate cut cycle and an early rate cut.

October personal consumption expenditure (PCE deflator).

• PCE deflator・Month change: Result 0.0% Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.4%
• PCE deflator – change from previous year: Result 3.0% Expected 3.1% Previous 3.4%
• Core/Month change: Result 0.2% Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.3%
• Core/YoY change: Result 3.5% Expected 3.5% Previous 3.7%

Today’s main market materials are as follows:.

• PCE data shows demand cooling; overall increase of 0%
• US NY Fed President: “Interest rates are the most economic suppressive in the past 25 years” and assumes high interest rates will be maintained for a long period of time
• US Treasury yields rebound after US Federal Reserve President’s statement that the Fed is not considering rate cuts at all
• Monthly: Yen rose approximately 2.3% against the dollar
• Gold price: 2.63% rise for the month, Middle East conflict and expectations for the end of the interest rate hike cycle are factors for buying

Source: Tradingview (gold spot)

Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech tomorrow. The FOMC is scheduled to announce interest rates on December 14th, and all eyes are on whether they will give any hints about monetary policy or the economy before then.

Important economic indicators/events from this week onwards

• 12/6 (Wednesday) 22:15 US November ADP employment statistics
• 12/8 (Friday) 22:15 U.S. November unemployment rate
• 12/12 (Tue) 22:30 U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• 12/14 (Thu) 4:00 US FOMC policy rate announcement

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Cryptocurrency-related stocks fall

• Coinbase｜$124.7 (-2.4%)
• MicroStrategy | $498.3 (-1.7%)
• Marathon | $11.9 (-3.4%)

Due to its strong correlation with Bitcoin, Coinbase stock had a monthly increase of about 62% in November, far exceeding Bitcoin’s 8.8% rise.

Source: Tradingview

Additionally, MicroStrategy announced last night that it purchased an additional 16,130 BTC in Bitcoin.

connection: MicroStrategy purchases approximately $600 million worth of virtual currency Bitcoin

Virtual currency market

• Bitcoin: $37,696 -0.3% Monthly: +8.8%
• Ethereum: $2,045 +0.7% Monthly: +12.6%
• Solana: $59.2 +0.1% Monthly: +53.7%

connection: Net inflows for Bitcoin investment products for 9th consecutive week, the largest since the “bull market” in November 2021

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